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Forum Greatescortagency Great Escort Agency The 4th Media » Syria and Middle East: Options and Implications (I) (II)

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A Syrian friend and major trade partner not long ago Turkey has gone to a hostility that stops just short of intervention. Right now Turkey’s view and position regarding Syria is harsh and uncompromising. Its policy is based on supporting the US and Europe, becoming a safe haven for the Syrian opposition. Troops concentrated on the Syrian border, it tries to organize Syria’s internal opposition and says it out loud the government in Damascus should be gone.

Until now Turkey has used military force in the Middle East only to counter the intermittent threat of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It had never called for any government to be overthrown or ever resorted to military force. It refused to join the operation in Iraq in 2003. Furthermore those days it refused to let the USA armed forces enter Iraq from its territory. No opposition movement had ever used its territory as a base. What’s at the root of this about face? 

Turkey taking lead in the region 

In his “The Third Wave: the democratization in the late 20th Century” Samuel Huntington pointed out the existence of a “demonstrative effect”, meaning a chain reaction – an example of earlier transitions provided patterns to follow for subsequent efforts at democratization that in turn provided models for other efforts. Turkey may start this chain reaction. Besides there is cultural affinity between Turkey and the countries of the region. So its example is more relevant in comparison with non-Muslim nations. A page from the Turkey’s book could be brought to bear on a number of areas where reform is vital. 

Turkey’s role as a leading example for other Middle East actors to follow may present its relationship with the West in quiet a different light. A Turkey acting to foster democracy and the rule of law in the Arab world is a way to make a long cherished idea of a “Greater Middle East” a reality.

Egypt has lost its previous status and has gone to the sidelines. Other countries such as Saudi Arabia have their own internal crises and Syria has also lost its important role in the Arab world due to the events in question. So Turkey tries to rise as a major power while other main actors in the Middle East are in grips of political, social, and economic problems. This has become the main focus of Turkey’s foreign policy in relation to Syria and other countries. 

No loss in trying. No way Turkey can join the EU but its NATO membership is not imperiled. Not with a NATO missile defense radar and a new drone base deployed on Turkish soil. Becoming a Greater Middle East leader is a good try. 

Challenges on the way 

But does Turkey have a stable rear? It has to fight the Kurds in the East. The further escalation means running serious risks. Kurdish separatist activity may spill across the border. So far, Kurdish protesters in Syria have been relatively contained but what if?

Then further escalation would make Turkey vulnerable to Syrian and Iranian militant proxy attacks, at the time it has to deal with a significant rise in PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) activity and has a mission to uproot the organization’s cells in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq.

Syria and Iran do not exert direct influence on PKK’s activities, but they do influence splinter factions that could demonstrate the repercussions of driving the Syrian government to the wall. 

Inter ethnic and inter confessional strife in Turkey is here to stay. About 12 million Alawi Muslims (the estimates are very different – from 5 to 20) make up a part of the country’s population. It’s not the most prosperous or powerful part of it. Will they support a military action against Syria where the Alawis are in power? 

Turkey’s relations with Iran have become problematic due to several issues. For instance, the installation of missile shield elements in Turkey and close relations with the United States and other countries that are hostile to Iran – all this causes anxiety among Iranian leaders. Right now relations between Iran and Turkey are very good and there are no issues reaching a crisis state.

But once Turkey thinks of itself as a leader in the Middle East and strives to have a key role in the regional developments Iran becomes an serious obstacle and a mighty rival because by and large it pursues the very same objectives. For instance in Syria. 

Wrap up 

Of course, the Turkey’s foreign policy is based on its own interests. Therefore if influential countries like Egypt, Syria, and Saudi Arabia have internal challenges in their nation-building, the only country that can be the center of attention in the region is Turkey. The role is played aggressively in the framework of these developments.

This does not mean that Turkey’s foreign policy is a total success until now, in fact, there are internal challenges, tensions with its neighbors and Iran is a strong rival. These are the factors to take into consideration. Think twice before jump. 

II

REPERCUSSIONS FOR REGION

No doubt Syria is the country where the so called the Arab spring has the most profound geostrategic implications. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government would make the Middle East quiet a different place.  The impasse we have now emphasizes the polarization of regional actors along for and against Assad lines having in mind the risk that the ongoing internal escalation in Syria will have unpredictable repercussions on regional scale.  

The West. The West has long loathed the Syrian government, just enough to remember its interventions in Lebanon, its support for Palestinian Hamas and enabling of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. But there are also examples of constructive cooperation the Western media somehow forgets about these days.  Syria fought alongside the U.S. in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq.

It offered to join the West in intelligence gathering efforts after 9/11 terrorist acts in the USA. It should also be taken into account that the Assad’s government fall could have negative impact on neighboring countries whose own sectarian power balances connect with Syria’s own. So a desire to get rid of the Syrian government is here to stay.

But it’s an open question if its fall would really serve the Western interests. It’s a pity cool thinking is not up to fashion at present among Nato and EU leaders and a major part of Western think tanks.  

The Persian Gulf states. The events in Syria give the Gulf States a chance to get rid of an important Iranian ally (the dangerous rival for influence in the region). They can offer significant financial support to those who oppose the Syrian government. Their ability to influence events directly is rather limited.

Syrian opposition and Gulf states are divided along sectarian lines. Parts of the Syrian opposition have been courted by the respective governments, but there is still deep mistrust to overcome and that’s a long way to go. Of course no part of the Arab world is immune from the repercussions of the Arab spring.  

But by and large, the oil monarchies are clearly the least affected area. Bahrain and, to lesser extent, Oman and Kuwait saw some demonstrations but things seem to cool down there as the region is heating up. They are all rather small places easy to police, compared to Syria, for instance They have oil and money as tools to mitigate whatever discontent may spread among population.

But they lost their most important ally – Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Iran is a dangerous opponent and a powerful actor in regional politics. Many in the Gulf states elite see playing the sectarian card as the best way to limit Iranian influence, since there are more Sunnis than Shia in the region.

Though it may exacerbate their problems in Bahrain, Iraq and Lebanon, and encourage extremist salafi reactions in the Sunni community. In turn it may strengthen al Qaeda adherents and other extremists  positions.  Playing the sectarian card may backlash causing too much harm.

Hotspots. As mentioned before Syria occupies a strategic crossroads in the region. The potential fires from a spark are too many to enumerate. An event in Lebanon, for instance, could divert attention of the Syrian government from domestic situation.

Or insurgents could slip across Syria’s long and porous border with Iraq to spark discontent among hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees.  Kurdish discontent is vulnerable to a spark too. Despite the 1974 “separation of forces” agreement with Israel, war scare is common.

Although monitored regularly by U.N. peacekeepers, the two countries keep fingers at the triggers. Israel is locked in a dangerous standoff with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas-ruled Gaza. The future of the standing peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan is uncertain in light of the protest movements.

So, the Syrian instability makes Israel more nervous and on edge. Besides what about the regional unrest spreading to the Palestinian territories? Overall, it’s hard to know what implications are there for regional peace and security until there is greater clarity about Syria’s political future.

Iraq.   Iraq’s reaction to the popular uprising in Syria is mostly determined by the chaos that would follow the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule. Baghdad has little to offer to support Iraqi government but it does what it can to help. The sectarian nature of Iraqi politics, however, is a hurdle on the way of developing a decisive position on the issue. .                                      

Jordan.  The Jordanian government is deeply concerned about the turmoil in Syria, The spillover effect is a nightmare. Syria’s capacity to undermine Jordanian internal situation has some historic examples. So, the official reaction is cautious no matter outside pressure. It just avoids to provoke the neighbor. Amman is doomed to react carefully to events in Syria to ensure the security of the state.

Lebanon. Lebanon’s leading political actors hold vastly different views on the situation and desirable outcomes. But all sides fear potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its repercussions.  Lebanon’s ability to influence the conflict inside Syria is almost non – existent. 

Despite their common interest in toppling Syrian government, there is thing that is common for all players. No one wants to set the region ablaze.

POSSIBILITY OF MILITARY ACTION

This possibility exists, but now it seems the odds are not high. Syria is completely different from Libya, it has allies. Iran, Lebanon, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. They will take action, especially Hezbollah and Hamas.  

Syria and Iran has long maintained a close relationship. The West imposed  sanctions on both what makes them be in the same boat.  

Hezbollah in Lebanon is Syria’s loyal ally, with more than 20,000 soldiers, with tanks, missiles. The personnel got experienced confronting Israeli army. The organization has branches in Jordan, Yemen and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

Hezbollah would immediately start these organizations if need be. The dilemma for the West, Turkey, and the Arab governments now openly opposed to the Assad regime, is what more they can do short of military intervention in some form. The formation of safe havens on Syrian territory is a significant step.

So too is continued support for the Syrian National Council and peaceful elements of the Syrian opposition. Intensifying subversive actions is an option. Creating “humanitarian corridors” is an issue on the agenda. No doubt they will be used to transport Syrian spies, armed anti-government forces, military material and whatever is required for subversive activities.